The end of August is approaching and, at the same time, for thousands of Argentines who work under the dependency relationship scheme, the possibility of seeing a new salary credited.
In this context, specialists provide a series of keys to take advantage of, invest and earn some extra pesos before the end of the week
Next, the variables that the market observes and expects:
1 dollar
- BLUE $292 -1.01% weekly
- MEP $284.28 -2.68% weekly
- CCL $293.87 -1.90% weekly
Gap with the official dollar
- BLUE 102%
- MEP 97%
- LCC 104%
During the previous week, there was a slight drop in financial dollars, which could not repair the jump produced the previous week.
These days the price cut should be confirmed, a favorable figure to follow is the intervention of the BCRA in the foreign exchange market where it has been buying foreign currency for 12 consecutive days, with sales between US$50,000,000 and US $100,000,000 per day.
A negative fact is that of a new twist to the stocks, if the rumor is confirmed that they will restrict the purchase of official dollars to all those who maintain the subsidy in rates. The breaches are not lowered with more traps.
2. Fees
- Traditional fixed term 5.79% TEM
- Fixed term UVA: 7.4% for the current month, 6% and 5.5% estimated for the following months
- US 10-year rate 3.03 +5 bp
With no change in rates and with prices that continue to rise, UVA fixed terms continue to project the highest yields.
3. Actions
Merval 141,459.95 +7.98% weekly
Merval at u$s483.57 +10.79% weekly
S&P 500 4,057.66 -4.04% weekly
Local market : good week for the national currency as well as in its version in dollars. These have a rebound of 40% and 70% , respectively, from lows and it will be necessary to validate if we are not facing a change in trend.
YPF led the rise with more than 16.35% while the ADR in dollars grew 18.82%.
After significant rallies, we should consider the possibility of being close to profit-taking .
American market: Jerome Powell’s words after the Jackson Hole meeting increased the fall over the end of the week, preparing investors for more rate hikes in the short term.
It is logical taking into account rates of the order of 3% with inflation at 8% . It is not ruled out that the decline will deepen.
4. Bonuses
- Country risk 2400 bp -58 bp
Dollar bonds had a positive balance despite last Friday’s decline. If we compare the new advance, with the rest of the emerging bonds, we can notice an improvement for the Argentine bonds.
The recent dual bonds (adjusted for inflation or the price of the dollar) attracted great interest, which is reflected in the volume traded.
The week saw the departure of PB25 and higher demand in TO26, which left IRR of 96.57% and 93.11%, respectively.
Biggest weekly gains in bonds : GD46 +8.49%, TV24 +7.78%, AL35 +5.41%. On the other hand, the declines were led by TVPY -6.83%, TO23 -2.63%, TX25 -2%.
5. Deposits
Private time deposits in pesos were located at $5,498,434 million , 96% of them traditional and the remaining 4% adjusted for UVA. During the last 30 days, they grew by 11.52%, which is above the accrued interest, so it becomes a good figure.
Total deposits in dollars are US $14,556 million and after falling for 2 consecutive months they seem to find some stability in these values.
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